2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

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The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Kansas. Democratic nominee Laura Kelly was elected, defeating Republican nominee Kris Kobach and an independent candidate, Greg Orman. Republican Governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term, but can re-enter as a candidate in 2022. On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. Brownback was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018.[1] On January 31, 2018[2] Brownback resigned the governorship and Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer succeeded him.[3] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes,[4] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.[5][6][7] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination on August 14.[8] Democratic State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination.[9] Independent Greg Orman, who finished second in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor, again as an independent candidate.[10]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle.[11] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%.[12] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits.[13]

Laura Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for Governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery won in 1964, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since John McCuish left office in 1957.[14]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Wink Hartman, businessman and candidate for KS-04 in 2010[26] (running for lieutenant governor)[27] Hartman joined Kris Kobach's campaign as his Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate.

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jim
Barnett		 Jeff
Colyer		 Wink
Hartman		 Kris
Kobach		 Ken
Selzer		 Other Undecided
Remington (R) August 3–5, 2018 2,769 ± 2.0% 14% 34% – 32% 9% 3%[37] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 2, 2018 1,546 ± 2.4% 11% 36% – 43% 5% 4%[37] –
Remington (R) August 2, 2018 859 ± 3.3% 13% 32% – 32% 9% 3%[37] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) July 24–26, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 11% 25% – 34% 8% 2%[38] 20%
Remington (R) May 14–15, 2018 1,441 ± 2.6% 9% 29% – 27% 5% – 30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) March 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 10% 18% – 31% 4% – 36%
Remington (R) February 13–14, 2018 1,806 ± 2.3% 8% 23% 5% 21% 3% 3%[39] 37%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 – – – 20% 6% 26% 11% – 38%

Results

File:2018 KS gubernatorial GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Kobach—50–60%
  Kobach—40–50%
  Kobach—<40%
  Kobach/Colyer tie—40–50%
  Colyer—<40%
  Colyer—40–50%
  Colyer—50–60%
  Colyer—70–80%
  Selzer—<40%
Republican primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent) 128,488 40.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,993 8.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,807 7.82
Republican Patrick Kucera 3,212 1.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich 2,276 0.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr. 1,559 0.49
Total votes 317,173 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Arden Andersen, physician[43]
    • Running mate: Dale Cowsert, businessman
  • Jack Bergeson, high school student[44]
    • Running mate: Alexander Cline, high school student[44]
  • Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita[45]
    • Running mate: Chris Morrow, former mayor of Gardner[46]
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture and former state representative[47]
    • Running mate: Katrina Gier Lewison, Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education member, veteran

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Arden
Andersen		 Jack
Bergeson		 Carl
Brewer		 Laura
Kelly		 Josh
Svaty		 Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) June 5–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 3% 2% 22% 35% 12% 25%
– – 25% 44% 12% 20%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,693 20.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,722 17.5
Democratic Arden Andersen 12,845 8.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson 3,850 2.5
Total votes 152,856 100.0

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Ilan Cohen, high school student from Maryland[60]
  • Aaron Coleman, college student (write-in)[61]
  • Max Correa, college student from North Carolina [62]
  • Joe Larry Hunter, former inmate[63][64]
  • Rick Kloos[65]
    • Running mate: Nathaniel Kloos, son of Rick Kloos[61]
  • Greg Orman, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[53][66]
  • Victor Redko, McGill University student[68][69]
  • Jared Rogers, University of Pennsylvania student[70]
  • Nicholas Schrieber, college student from Delaware[71]
    • Running mate: Matthew Ueckermann, college student from Maryland[71]
  • Conner Shelton, college student from Pennsylvania[72]

Endorsements

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jeff Caldwell, executive committee member for the Libertarian Party of Kansas[73]
    • Running mate: Mary Gerlt

Withdrew

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Tossup October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[78] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Lean D November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[80] Tossup October 30, 2018
Daily Kos[81] Tossup November 2, 2018
Fox News[82] Tossup October 30, 2018
Politico[83] Tossup November 2, 2018
Governing[84] Tossup November 2, 2018
The Washington Post[85] Tossup October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[86] Tossup November 2, 2018

Debates

Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Laura
Kelly (D)		 Greg
Orman (I)		 Kris
Kobach (R)
KCPT September 5, 2018 [87] Invited Invited Invited

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kris
Kobach
(R)		 Laura
Kelly
(D)		 Greg
Orman
(I)		 Jeff
Caldwell
(L)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 976 ± 3.3% 44% 43% 8% – 1% 4%
Ipsos October 17–27, 2018 986 ± 3.6% 41% 43% 9% – 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) October 19–20, 2018 698 ± 3.7% 41% 41% 10% 2% 0%[137] 6%
Remington (R) September 30 – October 1, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 10% 2% 1%[138] 4%
Emerson College September 26–28, 2018 938 ± 3.5% 37% 36% 9% – 3% 15%
Fort Hays State University August 22 – September 25, 2018 324 – 36% 40% 10% – 5% –
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) September 21–24, 2018 1,178 ± 3.4% 39% 41% 9% 5% 0%[137] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) September 12–13, 2018 618 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[139] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) August 24–26, 2018 877 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[139] 11%
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 35% 36% 12% – – 17%

Results

Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018[140]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Laura Kelly 506,727 48.01% +1.88%
Republican Kris Kobach 453,645 42.98% -6.84%
Independent Greg Orman 68,590 6.50% N/A
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell 20,020 1.90% -2.15%
Independent Rick Kloos 6,584 0.62% N/A
Total votes 1,055,566 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

References

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External links

Debates
Official campaign websites
  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  6. ↑ Kris Kobach, Trump ally and Kan. secretary of state, recuses himself from vote counting in his own GOP primary vs. Gov. Jeff Colyer, The Washington Post, Amy B. Wang and Felicia Sonmez, August 9, 2018. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
  7. ↑ http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Kobach-lead-falls-to-under-100-after-misreported-votes-discovered-490480031.html
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ [Live results for the Kansas primary elections Kris Kobach is challenging incumbent Jeff Colyer in the GOP primary for governor.<ref [1], Vox (website), Ella Nilsen and Li Zhou, August 7, 2018. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
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  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ https://www.jocobar.org/page/Govdebate2018
  13. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC)
  14. ↑ Without a clear primary winner, the Kansas GOP might be at a disadvantage. The Washington Post. 10 August 2018.
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  37. ↑ 37.0 37.1 37.2 Patrick Kucera, Tyler Ruzich, and Joseph Tutera with 1%
  38. ↑ Patrick Kucera and Tyler Ruzich with 1%, Joseph Tutera with <1%
  39. ↑ Mark Hutton 3%
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  55. ↑ Former GOP U.S. senator, Senate president among those choosing Kelly over Kobach, Kansas City Star, Hunter Woodall, September 13, 2018. Retrieved September 13, 2018.
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  118. ↑ https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1026495277824401408?s=21
  119. ↑ https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1029727209316069376
  120. ↑ https://twitter.com/mike_pence/status/1029749643100520448
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  124. ↑ https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216753550.html
  125. ↑ https://twitter.com/KrisKobach1787/status/1029537682886680576
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  137. ↑ 137.0 137.1 Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
  138. ↑ Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
  139. ↑ 139.0 139.1 Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
  140. ↑ http://www.kssos.org/elections/18elec/2018_General_Election_Official_Votes_Cast.pdf
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