Causal layered analysis
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Causal layered analysis (sometimes capitalized as Causal Layered Analysis and abbreviated as CLA) is a technique used in strategic planning and futures studies to more effectively shape the future.[1][2] The technique was pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futures studies researcher.[3]
Theory
Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper[3] as well as his TEDx talk[4] identify four levels:
- The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."[3]
- Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
- Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
- Metaphor and myth
History of research
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited.[3] Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.[5][6]
Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.[7]
A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and Ken Wilber's integral theory.[8]
A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter's critique of CLA.[9]
Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015.[10] With various authors, they investigate topics such as:
- The Global Financial Crisis
- Terrorism futures
- Global governance
- Ageing and the changing workforce
- Educational and university futures
- Climate change
- Water futures in the Muslim world
- The alternative futures of China
- Agricultural policy in Australia
- The new national narrative in Singapore
See also
References
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