2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
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Template:Elections in Alaska sidebar
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.[1]
Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 elections in Alaska, this was the second U.S. House election in Alaska held under the new election process, after the special election for the same seat on August 16, 2022, where Peltola was elected to succeed Republican Don Young, who died on March 18, 2022.[2] All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on the same day as the special election, with each voter casting a single vote for their preferred candidate. The four candidates who received the most votes were eventual incumbent Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Tara Sweeney. However, Sweeney withdrew from the race, so fifth-place finisher Chris Bye moved on to the general election in her place.[3][4]
In the general election, Peltola led the first round by over twenty percentage points, but since no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. This was not enough to catch Peltola, who won the final round by ten percentage points.[5]
Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won a district that Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election;[lower-alpha 1] she outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.
Contents
Primary election
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Mary Peltola, incumbent U.S. Representative and former state representative[6][7]
Withdrew
- Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member (endorsed Peltola)[8]
- Mike Milligan, former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green nominee for this district in 1992 and for lieutenant governor in 1998 (endorsed Peltola)[8]
- Adam Wool, state representative[6][9][8]
Declined
- Les Gara, former state representative (running for governor)[10]
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator[11]
- Emil Notti, engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, nominee for this district in 1973, and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][12][13]
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Nick Begich III, Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich, and nephew of former U.S. Senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich[6][14]
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008[6][15]
Withdrew after advancing to general
Eliminated in primary
- Jay Armstrong[6]
- Robert "Bob" Lyons, case manager[6][17]
- Randy Purham, businessman and U.S. Army veteran[18]
- Brad Snowden[18]
- Denise Williams[18]
Withdrawn
- John Coghill, former majority leader of the Alaska Senate, former majority leader of the Alaska House of Representatives, son of former Lieutenant Governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran (endorsed Begich)[6][19][20]
- Mikel Melander[6][18]
- Josh Revak, state senator and U.S. Army veteran[6][21][9][22]
- Jesse Sumner, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly member[6][23]
Declined
- Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska (endorsed Palin and Sweeney)[24]
Libertarian Party
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
- J. R. Myers, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014[6]
Alaskan Independence Party
Declined
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for governor)[6]
American Independent Party
Eliminated in primary
- Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate[6]
Independents
Eliminated in primary
- Gregg Brelsford, lawyer and former Bristol Bay Borough manager[6][25]
- Lady Donna Dutchess, judicial reform activist[6]
- Ted Heintz[6]
- David Hughes[6]
- David LeBlanc[18]
- Sherry Mettler[6]
- Silvio Pellegrini, businessman[26]
- Andrew Phelps[18]
- Sherry Strizak[18]
- Tremayne Wilson[18]
Withdrawn
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[6][27][28] (endorsed Peltola and Sweeney)[29]
- William Hibler III, former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for this district in 2016 and 2020[6][18]
- Jeff Lowenfels, attorney and gardening writer[6][11][18]
Declined
- Santa Claus, North Pole city councillor and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][9][13] (endorsed Peltola)[30]
- Andrew Halcro, former Republican state representative, candidate for Governor of Alaska in 2006, and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][11][9][13]
Results
Primary election results[18][31] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 70,295 | 36.80 | |
Republican | Sarah Palin | 57,693 | 30.20 | |
Republican | Nick Begich III | 50,021 | 26.19 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney (withdrew) | 7,195 | 3.77 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye[lower-alpha 2] | 1,189 | 0.62 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 531 | 0.28 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 447 | 0.23 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 403 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Brad Snowden | 355 | 0.19 | |
Republican | Randy Purham | 311 | 0.16 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 270 | 0.14 | |
Independent | Sherry Strizak | 252 | 0.13 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 248 | 0.13 | |
Republican | Denise Williams | 242 | 0.13 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 241 | 0.13 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 238 | 0.12 | |
Independent | Andrew Phelps | 222 | 0.12 | |
Independent | Tremayne Wilson | 194 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 191 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 187 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 173 | 0.09 | |
Independent | Davis LeBlanc | 117 | 0.06 | |
Total votes | 191,015 | 100.00 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[32] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Inside Elections[33] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
Politico[35] | Lean D | October 26, 2022 |
RCP[36] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
Fox News[37] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
DDHQ[38] | Lean D | November 8, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight[39] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
The Economist[40] | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
Debates and forums
As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.
A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Nick Begich III | Chris Bye | Sarah Palin | Mary Peltola | |||||
1 | August 31, 2022 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Dave Karp | YouTube | P | P | P | P |
2 | October 4, 2022 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) | Dan Rohr | [1] | P | P | P | P |
3 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | Julie Hasquet | YouTube | P | P | A | P |
4 | October 21, 2022 | Alaska Federation of Natives | P | P | P | P | ||
5 | October 26, 2022 | Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source | Lori Townsend, Mike Ross | YouTube | P | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Nick Begich III (R) |
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Chris Bye (L) |
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Sarah Palin (R) |
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Al Gross (I) (withdrawn) |
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Mary Peltola (D) |
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State legislators
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Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn) |
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Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn) |
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Declined to endorse |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Nick Begich (R) |
Chris Bye (L) |
Undecided / Not Ranked / Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dittman Research | November 2–3, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
1 | 48% | 25% | 23% | 3% | 1% U 1% O |
||||
2 | 49% | 26% | 25% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
1 | 49% | 26% | 21% | 5% | — | ||||
2 | 51% | 27% | 22% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 57% | 43% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
3*[lower-alpha 4] | 56% | Elim | 44% | Elim | — | ||||
Dittman Research | October 4–8, 2022 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | ||||||
1 | 45% | 23% | 28% | 3% | — | ||||
2 | 46% | 24% | 30% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 52% | Elim | 48% | Elim | — | ||||
Alaska Survey Research | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
1 | 49% | 23% | 26% | 2% | — | ||||
2 | 50% | 24% | 26% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 54% | Elim | 46% | Elim | — | ||||
3*[lower-alpha 5] | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Dittman Research | September 6–14, 2022 | 394 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
1 | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% | 1% U 1% O |
||||
2 | 51% | 28% | 21% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 58% | 42% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [lower-alpha 6] | N/A[lower-alpha 7] | 45% | 30% | 20% | 2% | 3% U |
1 | 46% | 31% | 20% | 2% | 3% NR | ||||
2 | 47% | 32% | 21% | Elim[lower-alpha 8] | 4% NR | ||||
3 | 53% | 47% | Elim[lower-alpha 9] | Elim | 10% NR |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,253 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 1 | 26% | 27% | 39% | 8% | – |
2 | 29% | 29% | 42% | Elim | – | ||||
3 | 54% | Elim | 46% | Elim | – | ||||
3*[lower-alpha 10] | Elim | 48% | 53% | Elim | – | ||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 27% | 27% | 38% | 8% | – |
2 | 31% | 29% | 41% | Elim | – | ||||
3 | 56% | Elim | 44% | Elim | – |
Results
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||
Democratic | Mary Peltola (incumbent) | 128,553 | 48.77% | +202 | 128,755 | 48.66% | +1,031 | 129,786 | 49.22% | +7,477 | 137,263 | 54.96% | |
Republican | Sarah Palin | 67,866 | 25.74% | +464 | 68,330 | 25.82% | +1,069 | 69,399 | 26.32% | +43,072 | 112,471 | 45.04% | |
Republican | Nick Begich III | 61,513 | 23.33% | +992 | 62,505 | 23.62% | +1,994 | 64,499 | 24.46% | -64,499 | Eliminated | ||
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 4,570 | 1.73% | +429 | 4,999 | 1.89% | -4,999 | Eliminated | |||||
Write-in | 1,108 | 0.42% | -1,108 | Eliminated | |||||||||
Total votes | 263,610 | 264,589 | 263,684 | 249,734 | |||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 2,208 | +905 | 3,113 | +13,950 | 17,063 | ||||||||
Democratic hold |
See also
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
- 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2022 Alaska Senate election
- 2022 Alaska House of Representatives election
Notes
- ↑ The others being Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- ↑ Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ↑ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- ↑ Standard polling question.
- ↑ Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
- ↑ Begich eliminated. Vote transfer break own: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
- ↑ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- Partisan clients
References
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External links
- Official campaign websites
- Articles with short description
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- United States House of Representatives elections in Alaska
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2022 Alaska elections
- Sarah Palin