2022 Texas gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 45.85% | ||||||||||||||||
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Abbott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
O'Rourke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data |
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The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee and former Congressman, Beto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]
The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.
Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott, but a failed run for President of the United States in 2020 prompted criticisms of opportunism, via Republican attempts to brand him as anti-law enforcement and his former comments on guns.
Abbott won re-election by 10.9%, which is a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.
Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties in his re-election victory, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.
Contents
Republican primary
On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas Attorney General[10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- Paul G. Belew, criminal defense attorney[12]
- Danny Harrison, businessman[13]
- Kandy Kaye Horn, philanthropist[14][15]
- Don Huffines, former member of the Texas Senate[16]
- Ricky Lynn Perry, staffing agency employee[17]
- Chad Prather, BlazeTV talk show host, activist, and stand-up comedian[18]
- Allen West, former chair of the Texas Republican Party and former U.S. representative for Florida's 22nd congressional district[7][19]
Withdrawn
- Martin Holsome, former Rusk city councillor[20]
- Kurt Schwab, military veteran[18][not in citation given]
Declined
- George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and member of the Bush family (ran for Attorney General)[21][22][23]
- Christi Craddick, Texas Railroad Commissioner[21]
- Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts (running for re-election)[24]
- Sid Miller, Texas Agriculture Commissioner (running for re-election)[22]
- Rick Perry, former governor and former U.S. Secretary of Energy[17]
- Joe Straus, former Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives[25]
Endorsements
Greg Abbott |
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|
Don Huffines |
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|
Allen West |
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|
Polling
- Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Ricky Lynn Perry |
Chad Prather |
Allen West |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 25–28, 2022 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 5%[lower-alpha 2] | 3% |
Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 61% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] | 9% |
UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5%[lower-alpha 4] | 15% |
YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 60% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 3%[lower-alpha 5] | – |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | January 31, 2022 | 1,542 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 43% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 4% |
UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 514 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 59% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4%[lower-alpha 7] | 20% |
YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 58% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | 17% |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | January 9, 2022 | 1,486 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 3% | 38% | 3%[lower-alpha 9] | 7% |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | December 16, 2021 | 447 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 33% | 2% | 15% | 1% | 35% | – | 14% |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | November 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 42% | 3% | – | 2% | 36% | – | 17% |
UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 65% | 3% | – | 6% | 6% | 3% | 18% |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | November 11, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 33% | – | 19% |
YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 56% | 7% | – | 4% | 13% | 4% | 16% |
YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 4% | – | 3% | 13% | – | 19% |
UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 427 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 70% | 15% | – | – | – | 15% | – |
431 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 65% | – | – | – | 20% | 15% | – | ||
Victory Insights (R) | July 22–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 80% | – | – | – | 20% | – | – |
Paradigm Partners (R)[upper-alpha 1] | June 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 73% | – | – | – | 17% | – | 10% |
UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 440 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 77% | 12% | – | – | – | 11% | – |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Sid Miller |
Allen West |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] | June 14–17, 2021 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 69% | 3% | 3% | 13% | – |
Results
Republican primary results[49] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 1,299,059 | 66.48% | |
Republican | Allen West | 239,557 | 12.26% | |
Republican | Don Huffines | 234,138 | 11.98% | |
Republican | Chad Prather | 74,173 | 3.80% | |
Republican | Ricky Lynn Perry | 61,424 | 3.14% | |
Republican | Kandy Kaye Horn | 23,605 | 1.21% | |
Republican | Paul Belew | 11,387 | 0.58% | |
Republican | Danny Harrison | 10,829 | 0.55% | |
Total votes | 1,954,172 | 100% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. Representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[50]
Eliminated in primary
- Inocencio Barrientez, fitness trainer[14]
- Michael Cooper, pastor, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2018, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[51]
- Joy Diaz, reporter[52]
- Rich Wakeland, former advisor to Public Utility Commissioner Ken Anderson[53][54]
Disqualified
Declined
- Steve Adler, Mayor of Austin[55]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. Representative for Texas's 20th congressional district[56] (endorsed O’Rourke)[57]
- Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former Mayor of San Antonio, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[58]
- Wendy Davis, former state senator, nominee for governor in 2014, and nominee for Texas's 21st congressional district in 2020[59]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. Representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, former El Paso commissioner, and former El Paso county judge (running for re-election)[60]
- Lina Hidalgo, Harris County Judge[61][62]
Endorsements
Beto O'Rourke |
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Polling
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Inocencio Barrientez |
Michael Cooper |
Joy Diaz |
Jack Foster Jr. |
Deirdre Gilbert |
Star Locke |
Beto O'Rourke |
Rich Wakeland |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 388 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | – | – | 78% | 2% | – | 11% |
UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 479 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 68% | 2% | – | 14% |
YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 348 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | – | – | 93% | 1% | 1% | – |
UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 459 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 58% | 0% | – | 27% |
YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | 616 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | – | – | 73% | 1% | – | 16% |
YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 436 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | 5% | 25% |
Results
Democratic primary results[49] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 983,182 | 91.41% | |
Democratic | Joy Diaz | 33,622 | 3.13% | |
Democratic | Michael Cooper | 32,673 | 3.04% | |
Democratic | Rich Wakeland | 13,237 | 1.23% | |
Democratic | Inocencio Barrientez | 12,887 | 1.20% | |
Total votes | 1,075,601 | 100% |
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Delilah Barrios, environmental activist[80]
Libertarian convention
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018[81]
Withdrew/disqualified
- Dan Behrman, software engineer, internet personality, candidate for Texas House of Representatives in 2014, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[82][83]
- Andrew Jewell, industrial maintenance technician, Secretary of Libertarian Party of Dallas County, Chair of Texas Libertarian Party Radical Caucus, and candidate for Dallas County Commissioner District 3 in 2020.[83]
Independents and other parties
Candidates
Declared
- Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert, public educator (previously ran for Democratic nomination)[84][14][85]
- Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired educator and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[86][better source needed]
Disqualified
- Patrick Wynne, software engineer, data scientist and U.S. Navy veteran (Reform Party)[87][better source needed]
Declined
- Matthew McConaughey, Academy Award-winning actor[88][89] (no declared party affiliation)[90]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[91] | Likely R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[92] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] | Likely R | June 29, 2022 |
Politico[94] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[95] | Lean R | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News[96] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
538[97] | Solid R | September 21, 2022 |
Elections Daily[98] | Likely R | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Greg Abbott | Beto O'Rourke | |||||
1 | Sep. 30, 2022 | KXAN-TV | Sally Hernandez Gromer Jeffers Steve Spriester |
KXAN-TV | P | P |
Endorsements
Greg Abbott (R) |
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|
Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other [lower-alpha 10] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 3–19, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 52.8% | 43.5% | 3.7% | Abbott +9.3 |
FiveThirtyEight | June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 51.4% | 42.9% | 5.7% | Abbott +8.5 |
Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Abbott +8.9 |
- Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CWS Research (R)[upper-alpha 3] | November 2–5, 2022 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 42% | 2% | 3% |
UT Tyler | October 17–24, 2022 | 1,330 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 44% | 7%[lower-alpha 11] | 1% |
973 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 44% | 5%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% | ||
Emerson College | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 1%[lower-alpha 13] | 4% |
53% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 14] | – | ||||
Siena College | October 16–19, 2022 | 649 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 52% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 15] | 4% |
Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 4] | October 15–19, 2022 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | – | – |
BSP Research/UT[upper-alpha 5] | October 11–18, 2022 | 1,400 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 16] | 9% |
YouGov/UT | October 7–17, 2022 | 833 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | 2% |
Civiqs | October 8–11, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | 0% |
Marist College | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 1%[lower-alpha 19] | 5% |
898 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 44% | 1%[lower-alpha 20] | 4% | ||
Quinnipiac University | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 53% | 46% | 2%[lower-alpha 21] | – |
Emerson College | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | 4%[lower-alpha 22] | 5% |
ActiVote | June 23 – September 21, 2022 | 323 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 40% | 12%[lower-alpha 23] | – |
Siena College | September 14–18, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 24] | 5% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | September 6–15, 2022 | 1,172 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 44% | 2%[lower-alpha 25] | 3% |
UT Tyler | September 7–13, 2022 | 1,268 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 38% | 9%[lower-alpha 26] | 2% |
Data for Progress (D) | September 2–9, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | 2%[lower-alpha 27] | 3% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
YouGov/UT | August 26 – September 6, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 40% | 4%[lower-alpha 28] | 11% |
YouGov/UH/TSU | August 11–29, 2022 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 49% | 42% | 2%[lower-alpha 29] | 7% |
UT Tyler | August 1–7, 2022 | 1,384 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 13%[lower-alpha 30] | 1% |
1,215 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 42% | 9%[lower-alpha 31] | 1% | ||
YouGov/UH | June 27 – July 7, 2022 | 1,169 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 2%[lower-alpha 32] | 9% |
1,006 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 2%[lower-alpha 32] | 5% | ||
YouGov/CBS News | June 22–27, 2022 | 548 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
YouGov/UT | June 16–24, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 6%[lower-alpha 33] | 10% |
YouGov/PerryUndem | June 15–24, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 5% |
Quinnipiac University | June 9–13, 2022 | 1,257 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | 7% |
UT Tyler | May 2–10, 2022 | 1,232 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 14%[lower-alpha 34] | 2% |
YouGov/UT | April 14–22, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 37% | 7% | 9% |
YouGov/TXHPF | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 35] | 5% |
Texas Lyceum | March 11–20, 2022 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 11% |
Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 1,188 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 16% | 1% |
Climate Nexus | February 1–9, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 11% |
UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 36% | 16% | 1% |
YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | – (LV)[lower-alpha 36] | –[lower-alpha 36] | 48% | 43% | 3%[lower-alpha 37] | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | December 2–6, 2021 | 1,224 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 37% | 4% | 6% |
UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 39% | 16% | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | 5% | 7% |
854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 6% | ||
YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 37% | 7% | 10% |
YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 3%[lower-alpha 38] | 12% |
UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 37% | 21% | – |
UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 33% | 22% | – |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 6] | June 14–17, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
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- Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Julián Castro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 35% | 4% | 9% |
854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 39% | 4% | 8% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Matthew McConaughey (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 39% | 13% | – | 6% |
UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 26% | 27% | 10% | – |
YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 2%[lower-alpha 39] | 12% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Don Huffines |
Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Matthew McConaughey |
Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | 43% | 22% |
UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 44% | 21% |
UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
UT Tyler | April 6–13, 2021 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
- Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 7] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
- Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University | September 24–27, 2021 | 863 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | June 15–21, 2021 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,437,099 | 54.76% | -1.05% | |
Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 3,553,656 | 43.86% | +1.35% | |
Libertarian | Mark Tippetts | 81,932 | 1.01% | -0.68% | |
Green | Delilah Barrios | 28,584 | 0.35% | N/A | |
Total votes | 8,102,908 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 8,102,908 | 45.85% | |||
Registered electors | 17,672,143 | ||||
Republican hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Fort Bend (Largest city: Sugar Land)
By congressional district
Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[153]
Analysis
While Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, one did not materialize. Abbott won by about 10.9 points, a margin slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties, mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. 34 counties, in particular, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote, the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.
Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, and San Antonio–New Braunfels. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin. In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength has declined some in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.
O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6% - 25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4% - 35%; Dallas (62.8% - 35.9%); Bexar (57.5% - 41.1%); and Harris (54% - 44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5% - 43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.
Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley along the U.S. border with Mexico, but his performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but did slightly outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).
Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58% - 41%) and female voters (51% - 48%), whites (66% - 33%), voters over 45 (60% - 39%), college graduates (52% - 47%) and non-college graduates (56% - 43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94% - 5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84% - 15%), Latinos (57% - 40%), Asians (52% - 48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54% - 44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60% - 38%).[154][155][156]
Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%) and other minorities (53%-42%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) and Latina women (61%-37%). O'Rourke also won Latino men (55%-45%). Fox News Voter Analysis
See also
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas
- 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2022 Texas State Senate election
- 2022 Texas House of Representatives election
- 2022 Texas elections
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 1%
- ↑ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 0%
- ↑ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
- ↑ Someone else with 2%, Horn with 1%
- ↑ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
- ↑ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
- ↑ Harrison and Horn with 1%; Belew with 0%
- ↑ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- ↑ Tippetts (L) with 1%; Barrios (G) with <1%
- ↑ Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts and Barrios with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
- ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ Tippetts (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ↑ Tippetts with 9%; Barrios with 3%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- ↑ Barrios and Tippetts with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 6%; Barrios and Tippets with 3%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
- ↑ Tippetts with 2% and Barrios with 2%
- ↑ Tippetts with 1% and Barrios with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 7%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts with 3%; Barrios with 2%
- ↑ 32.0 32.1 Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 0%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 8%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
- ↑ Tippetts with 2%, Barrios with 1%
- ↑ 36.0 36.1 Subsample of likely general election voters from a survey of 1,400 registered voters (overall margin of error ± 2.2% including design effect)
- ↑ Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
- ↑ Behrman/Jewell with 2%, Barrios with 1%
- ↑ Behrman/Jewell and Barrios with 1%
- Partisan clients
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Poll conducted for West's campaign
- ↑ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
- ↑ Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC.
- ↑ Poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for progressive causes.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Univision.
- ↑ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund
References
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- ↑ 83.0 83.1 Elections 2022 Libertarian Party
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