2018 Texas gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.
2018 Texas gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout 53.01% (of registered voters) Increase19.31pp
42.07% (of voting age population)[1]
  x150px x150px
Nominee Greg Abbott Lupe Valdez
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,656,196 3,546,615
Percentage 55.8% 42.5%
310px
310px
Abbott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Valdez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
Governor before election

Greg Abbott
Republican

 Elected Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term in office[2] defeating Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County, and Libertarian nominee Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.

The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season.[3] Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.[4] Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and faced Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.[5]

Valdez's nomination made her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.[6]

Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13–15, 2018. He defeated three challengers, as well as the None Of The Above option, on the first ballot and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.

Despite considerably closer contests in other Texas state elections, Abbott handily won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994.[7] Tippetts' showing exceeded the previous record for most votes for a Libertarian nominee for Texas governor; that record had been set in 1990.

The election also took place alongside a closer, higher-profile Senate race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, which may have played a factor in making the Democratic gubernatorial candidate considerably more competitive than in 2014. Abbott won a majority among white Americans (72% to 26%), while Valdez won majorities among African Americans (80% to 16%) and Latinos (63% to 35%).[8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott		 Barbara
Krueger		 Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 4.7% 84% 2% 1%[22] 13%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 95% 5% 0%[23] –

Results

File:2018TXGovGOP.svg
Primary results by county
Abbott
  •   Abbott—≥90%
  •   Abbott—80–90%
  •   Abbott—70–80%
  •   Abbott—60–70%
No vote
  •   No vote
Republican primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 1,392,310 90.38% −1.11%
Republican Barbara Krueger 127,549 8.28%
Republican Larry Kilgore 20,504 1.33% -0.09%
Total votes 1,540,363 100% +202,488
Turnout 10.10%[25] -0.26%[25]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

First round

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Adrian
Ocegueda		 Jeffrey
Payne		 Lupe
Valdez		 Tom
Wakely		 Andrew
White		 Grady
Yarbrough		 Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 5.7% 6% 1% 12% 2% 17% 1% 6%[107] 54%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 5% 5% 43% 7% 24% 7% 8%[108] –

Results

File:Texas Governor Results – D Primary 2018.svg
Initial primary results by county
Valdez
  •   Valdez—60–70%
  •   Valdez—50–60%
  •   Valdez—40–50%
  •   Valdez—30–40%
  •   Valdez—20–30%
White
  •   White—100%
  •   White—50–60%
  •   White—40–50%
  •   White—30–40%
  •   White—20–30%
Davis
  •   Davis—60–70%
  •   Davis—20–30%
  •   Davis—<20%
Yarbrough
  •   Yarbrough—20–30%
  •   Yarbrough—30–40%
Payne
  •   Payne—70–80%
Wakely
  •   Wakely—30–40%
  •   Wakely—20–30%
Tie
  •   Tie
Democratic primary results[109]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Lupe Valdez 436,666 42.89%
Democratic Andrew White 278,708 27.37%
Democratic Cedric Davis Sr. 83,938 8.24% {{{change}}}
Democratic Grady Yarbrough 54,660 5.36% {{{change}}}
Democratic Jeffrey Payne 48,407 4.75% {{{change}}}
Democratic Adrian Ocegueda 44,825 4.4% {{{change}}}
Democratic Tom Wakely 34,889 3.42% {{{change}}}
Democratic James Clark 21,945 2.15% {{{change}}}
Democratic Joe Mumbach 13,921 1.36% {{{change}}}
Total votes 1,017,959 100% +463,945
Turnout 6.67%[25] +2.6%[25]

Runoff

File:Texas gubernatorial Democratic primary runoff, 2018.svg
Runoff results by county
Valdez
  •   Valdez—>90%
  •   Valdez—80–90%
  •   Valdez—70–80%
  •   Valdez—60–70%
  •   Valdez—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie
White
  •   White—50–60%
  •   White—60–70%
  •   White—70–80%
  •   White—80–90%
  •   White—>90%
No vote
  •   No vote

Lupe Valdez and Andrew White proceeded to a run-off on May 22 since neither received 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary.[4] Lupe Valdez won the runoff.[110]

Results

Democratic primary runoff results[109]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Lupe Valdez 227,577 53.1
Democratic Andrew White 201,356 46.9
Total votes 432,180 100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

  • Mark Tippetts, former Lago Vista City Councilman[111]

Defeated at Convention

  • Kathie Glass, attorney and previous nominee[112]
  • Patrick Smith[111]
  • Kory Watkins, activist[113]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[150] Safe R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[151] Safe R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[152] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[153] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[154] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[155] Safe R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[156] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[157][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[158] Safe R November 5, 2018
Governing[159] Safe R November 5, 2018
Notes
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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Lupe
Valdez (D)		 Mark
Tippetts (L)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 781 ± 3.7% 51% 43% 2% – 4%
Quinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,078 ± 3.5% 54% 40% – 1% 6%
University of Texas Tyler October 15–28, 2018 1,033 ± 3.0% 53% 32% – 5% 10%
Dixie Strategies October 25–26, 2018 588 ± 4.0% 59% 33% – – 7%
University of Texas/YouGov October 15–21, 2018 927 ± 3.2% 56% 37% 3% 4% –
Ipsos October 12–18, 2018 1,298 ± 3.2% 53% 38% – 3% 6%
CNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 57% 39% – 0% 3%
862 RV ± 4.1% 56% 38% – 0% 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 57% 35% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 58% 38% – 0% 4%
Emerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 53% 33% – 3% 11%
Epstein Group Archived October 13, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 15–24, 2018 1,200 ± 2.9% 58% 29% 3% – 10%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 55% 45% – – –
Quinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 58% 39% – 0% 3%
Ipsos Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 50% 41% – 2% 6%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 52% 39% – – –
Dixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 53% 34% 1% – 12%
Emerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 48% 28% – 3% 20%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 56% 37% – <1% 6%
Quinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 51% 38% – 1% 9%
Texas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 47% 31% 1% – 22%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 25% 3% – 28%
Gravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 41% – – 8%
University of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 44% 32% 4% 4% 16%
Quinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 53% 34% – 1% 9%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 48% 36% – – 16%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 49% 40% – 0% 9%

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Hypothetical polling
with Andrew White
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Andrew
White (D)		 Other Undecided
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 50% 39% – 10%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 48% 41% 0% 9%
with Julian Castro
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Julian
Castro (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 57% 28% – 15%
with Wendy Davis
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Wendy
Davis (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 57% 32% – 11%

Results

2018 Texas gubernatorial election[160]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 4,656,196 55.81% -3.46%
Democratic Lupe Valdez 3,546,615 42.51% +3.61%
Libertarian Mark Tippetts 140,632 1.69% +0.28%
Total votes 8,343,443 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Abbott won 25 of 36 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[161]

District Abbott Valdez Representative
1st 73.99% 24.95% Louie Gohmert
2nd 55.64% 42.70% Ted Poe
Dan Crenshaw
3rd 57.62% 40.55% Sam Johnson
Van Taylor
4th 77% 21.72% John Ratcliffe
5th 64.12% 34.31% Jeb Hensarling
Lance Gooden
6th 56.07% 42.17% Joe Barton
Ron Wright
7th 52.42% 45.81% John Culberson
Lizzie Fletcher
8th 74.95% 23.75% Kevin Brady
9th 23.50% 75.25% Al Green
10th 54.14% 43.93% Michael McCaul
11th 80.33% 18.39% Mike Conaway
12th 64.69% 33.51% Kay Granger
13th 81.44% 17.27% Mac Thornberry
14th 61.75% 36.80% Randy Weber
15th 47.50% 51.31% Vicente Gonzalez
16th 32.26% 65.85% Beto O'Rourke
Veronica Escobar
17th 58.84% 39.31% Bill Flores
18th 25.28% 73.14% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 74.30% 23.89% Jodey Arrington
20th 39.25% 58.90% Joaquín Castro
21st 55.03% 42.81% Lamar Smith
Chip Roy
22nd 55.62% 42.93% Pete Olson
23rd 52.93% 45.65% Will Hurd
24th 54.18% 43.72% Kenny Marchant
25th 57.24% 40.65% Roger Williams
26th 62.19% 35.80% Michael Burgess
27th 65.69% 33.04% Michael Cloud
28th 45.99% 52.69% Henry Cuellar
29th 29.95% 69.03% Gene Green
Sylvia Garcia
30th 22.14% 75.82% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 56.17% 41.52% John Carter
32nd 51.58% 46.26% Pete Sessions
Colin Allred
33rd 25.60% 72.82% Marc Veasey
34th 48.63% 50.11% Filemon Vela Jr.
35th 32.58% 65.25% Lloyd Doggett
36th 74.34% 24.46% Brian Babin

References

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External links

Debates
Official campaign websites
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  22. ↑ Larry Kilgore 1%
  23. ↑ Larry Kilgore 0%
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  107. ↑ James Clark 4%, Cedric Davis 2%, Joe Mumbach 0%
  108. ↑ Cedric Davis 4%, Joe Mumbach 3%, James Clark 1%
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  138. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  139. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  140. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  141. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  142. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  143. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  144. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  145. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  146. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  147. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  148. ↑ 148.0 148.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  149. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  150. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  151. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  152. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  153. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  154. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  155. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  156. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.[permanent dead link]
  157. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  158. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  159. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  160. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  161. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.


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