2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
Turnout	54.46% 20.49 pp
150x150px 150x150px Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863 Percentage 59.56% 38.55%
300px 300px 300px 300px 300px Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Dean:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      No data
Governor before election Bill Haslam Republican Elected Governor Bill Lee Republican

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.

During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican Governor Bill Haslam in 2010.

The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Bill Lee, businessman

Eliminated in primary

• Diane Black, U.S. Representative
• Randy Boyd, former Tennessee cabinet official
• Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives
• Basil Marceaux, perennial candidate
• Kay White, realtor and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 1st congressional district in 1996 and 1998

Withdrawn

• Mae Beavers, former state senator (unsuccessfully ran for Wilson County Mayor)
• Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran in Tennessee's 7th congressional district)

Declined

• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for the U.S. Senate)
• Tim Burchett, Mayor of Knox County (successfully ran in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district)
• Joe Carr, former state representative, perennial candidate
• Bob Corker, U.S. Senator
• Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative
• Alberto Gonzales, dean of the Belmont University School of Law and former U.S. Attorney General
• Bill Hagerty, United States Ambassador to Japan and former Tennessee cabinet official
• Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State
• Rob Mitchell, Rutherford County, Rutherford County Property Assessor
• Mark Norris, Majority Leader of the Tennessee Senate, appointed as judge to the United States District Court for the Western District of Tennessee
• Andy Ogles, director of Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity (successfully ran for Mayor of Maury County)
• Ron Ramsey, former Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee and candidate for Governor of Tennessee in 2010

Endorsements

Beth Harwell

Representative Harry Brooks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Administration and Planning Committee Chair Representative Dale Carr, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Subcommittee Chair Representative Mike Carter, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Subcommittee Chair Representative Jim Coley, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Jeremy Faison, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Government Operations Committee Chair Representative Andrew Farmer, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Committee Chair Representative John Forgety, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Instruction and Programs Committee Chair Representative Patsy Hazlewood, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Gary Hicks, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative John Holsclaw Jr., Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Subcommittee Chair Representative Dan Howell, Tennessee House of Representatives, Joint Judiciary and Government Committee Chair, House Local Government Committee Vice-Chair Representative Curtis Johnson, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Speaker Pro Tempore Representative Pat Marsh, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Committee Chair Representative Steve McDaniel, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Rules Committee Chair, House Ethics Committee Chair, House Finance, Ways, and Means Study Subcommittee Chair Representative Tim Rudd, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Charles Sargent, Tennessee House of Representatives, Finance, Ways, and Means Committee Chair Representative Mike Sparks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Calendar and Rules Committee Vice-Chair Representative Rick Tillis, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Tim Wirgau, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Committee Chair Senator Frank Niceley, Tennessee State Senate, Senate Energy, Agriculture, and Natural Resources 1st Vice-Chair, Senate Transportation and Safety Committee 2nd Vice-Chair Tennessee Education Association Tennessee State Employees Association Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association

Diane Black

Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States Stephen Fincher, former U.S. representative Ron Ramsey, former Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania Steve Scalise, U.S. Representative and House Majority Whip (R-LA) Jordan Sekulow, radio talk show host and executive director of the American Center for Law and Justice Carol M. Swain, former Vanderbilt professor and conservative commentator National Right to Life Susan B. Anthony List NRA Political Victory Fund American Conservative Union Students For Trump Family Research Council

Randy Boyd

Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor and Presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016 Joe Boyd Liggett, mayor of Marshall County Jake Bynum, mayor of Weakley County Mike Creasy, mayor of Decatur County J. Michael Cross, Fentress County executive Richard Daniel, Pickett County executive Ben Danner, Overton County executive Jim Durrett, mayor of Montgomery County Brent Greer, mayor of Henry County Denny Johnson, mayor of Lake County Shaun Lawson, mayor of Hickman County Mark Luttrell, mayor of Shelby County Kenny McBride, mayor of Carroll County Benny McGuire, mayor of Obion County Bill Newman, mayor of Lincoln County Denny Robinson, White County executive Richard Stewart, mayor of Franklin County Sloan Stewart, Lynchburg/Moore County Metro executive Skip Taylor, mayor of Fayette County Jessie Wallace, Humphreys County executive Bill Webb, mayor of Lewis County T.R. Williams, Lawrence County executive Tom Witherspoon, mayor of Gibson County Chris Young, mayor of Dyer County

Bill Lee

U.S. Representatives Zach Wamp, Former U.S. Representative (R-TN) State-level Officials Andy Holt, state representative Sheila Butt, state representative Jason Zachary, state representative Mae Beavers, former state senator, former gubernatorial candidate Joe Carr, former State Representative Notable Individuals Michael W. Smith, Christian Singer Steven Curtis Chapman, Christian Singer Darrell Waltrip, American motorsports analyst and former NASCAR driver Mike Fisher, Former center for the Nashville Predators and husband of singer Carrie Underwood Ricky Skaggs, Country Music Singer Scott Hamilton, American Figure Skater and Olympic Gold Medalist Newspapers Chattanooga Free Press Johnson City Press Dunlap News

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black	Randy Boyd	Beth Harwell	Bill Lee	Other	Undecided
JMC Analytics	July 18–21, 2018	500	± 4.4%	19%	20%	16%	26%	1%	17%
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	July 11–14, 2018	266	± 6.4%	27%	22%	14%	19%	3%	14%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	June 27–30, 2018	700	± 3.7%	24%	23%	10%	19%	–	24%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	June 25–28, 2018	1,040	± 3.1%	27%	33%	7%	20%	–	13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	May 14–17, 2018	600	± 4.0%	41%	28%	8%	9%	–	15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)	May 4–6, 2018	800	–	41%	26%	6%	11%	–	15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	April 2018	–	–	33%	30%	5%	13%	–	–
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	March 2018	–	–	31%	31%	10%	10%	–	–
TargetPoint/GQR	March 7–14, 2018	390	± 5.0%	25%	20%	6%	7%	2%	37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)	February 5–11, 2018	600	± 4.0%	22%	25%	4%	18%	–	30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	December 12–18, 2017	1,028	± 3.1%	22%	12%	6%	4%	4%	53%

Results

File:Tennessee Governor R Primary 2018.svg

Results by county:

  Lee

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

  Boyd

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

  Black

•   20–30%
•   30–40%

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bill Lee	291,414	36.75
	Republican	Randy Boyd	193,054	24.35
	Republican	Diane Black	182,457	23.01
	Republican	Beth Harwell	121,484	15.32
	Republican	Kay White	3,215	0.41
	Republican	Basil Marceaux	1,264	0.16
Total votes			792,888	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Karl Dean, former Mayor of Nashville, 2007–2015

Eliminated in primary

• Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives
• Mezianne Vale Payne, retiree

Declined

• Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator
• Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015

Endorsements

Karl Dean
Federal officials Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative (D-TN) Steve Cohen, U.S. Representative (D-TN) Bob Clement, former U.S Representative (D-TN) Lincoln Davis, former U.S. Representative (D-TN) Labor unions Memphis AFSCME Local 1733 Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66 Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Karl Dean	Craig Fitzhugh	Other	Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	July 11–14, 2018	206	± 7.3%	44%	14%	9%	33%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 7–14, 2018	288	± 5.8%	41%	11%	–	44%

Results

File:Tennessee gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg

Results by county:

  Dean

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90-100%

  Fitzhugh

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90-100%

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Karl Dean	280,553	75.14
	Democratic	Craig Fitzhugh	72,553	23.42
	Democratic	Mezianne Vale Payne	20,284	5.44
Total votes			373,390	100.0

Independents

Candidates

• Mark CoonRippy Brown (Independent)
• Sherry L. Clark (Libertarian)
• Justin Cornett (Libertarian)
• Gabriel Fancher (Libertarian)
• Sean Bruce Fleming (Libertarian)
• William Andrew Helmstetter (Libertarian)
• Cory King (Libertarian)
• Matthew Koch (Libertarian)
• Yvonne Neubert (Green)
• Alfred Shawn Rapoza (Libertarian)
• Chad Riden, comedian (Independent)
• Heather Scott (Libertarian)
• George Blackwell Smith IV (Libertarian)
• Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Libertarian)
• Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Libertarian)
• Mike Toews (Libertarian)
• Rick Tyler, candidate for TN-03 in 2016
• Vinnie Vineyard (Funkmaster V from Wrestling With Ghosts) (Libertarian)
• Jaron D. Weidner (Libertarian)
• Joe B. Wilmoth (Independent)
• Patrick Whitlock (Independent)

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States U.S. Senators Lamar Alexander, U.S. Senator (R-TN) U.S. Representatives Diane Black, U.S. Representative (R-TN) and Republican Candidate for Governor in 2018 Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative (R-TN) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 Zach Wamp, Former U.S. Representative (R-TN) State-level Officials Bill Haslam, Governor of Tennessee Andy Holt, state representative Sheila Butt, state representative Jay Reedy, state representative Jason Zachary, state representative Mae Beavers, former state senator, former gubernatorial candidate Joe Carr, former State Representative Notable Individuals Michael W. Smith, Christian Singer Steven Curtis Chapman, Christian Singer Darrell Waltrip, American motorsports analyst and former NASCAR driver Mike Fisher, Former center for the Nashville Predators and husband of singer Carrie Underwood Ricky Skaggs, Country Music Singer Scott Hamilton, American Figure Skater and Olympic Gold Medalist Randy Boyd, Businessman and Republican Candidate for Governor in 2018 Organizations Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association NRA Political Victory Fund Tennessee Police Benevolent Association Newspapers Dunlap News Chattanooga Free Press Knoxville News Sentinel

Karl Dean (D)

U.S. Representatives Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative (D-TN) Steve Cohen, U.S. Representative (D-TN) Bob Clement, former U.S Representative (D-TN) Lincoln Davis, former U.S. Representative (D-TN) State officials Terry McAuliffe, 72nd Governor of Virginia Martin O'Malley, 61st Governor of Maryland Local officials Craig Fitzhugh, state representative and former candidate Labor unions Memphis AFSCME Local 1733 Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66 Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post	Likely R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics	Likely R	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Governing	Likely R	November 5, 2018

Notes

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Lee (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Other	Undecided
Targoz Market Research	October 28–31, 2018	480	–	53%	44%	–	2%
Emerson College	October 28–30, 2018	621	± 4.0%	54%	41%	2%	3%
Fox News	October 27–30, 2018	718 LV	± 3.5%	54%	37%	2%	7%
		850 RV	± 3.0%	52%	36%	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling	October 27–29, 2018	780	± 3.5%	56%	44%	–	–
CNN/SSRS	October 24–29, 2018	764 LV	± 4.3%	52%	42%	0%	4%
		871 RV	± 4.0%	52%	41%	0%	5%
East Tennessee State University Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	October 22–29, 2018	495	± 4.4%	48%	36%	5%	9%
Cygnal (R)	October 26–27, 2018	497	± 4.4%	59%	36%	3%	2%
Marist College	October 23–27, 2018	471 LV	± 5.7%	57%	40%	1%	3%
		764 RV	± 4.4%	56%	39%	1%	4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS	October 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.9%	48%	37%	0%	12%
Targoz Market Research	October 9–12, 2018	558 LV	–	56%	44%	–	–
		801 RV	–	49%	39%	–	12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	October 8–11, 2018	593	± 4.2%	59%	33%	–	8%
Fox News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	666 LV	± 3.5%	53%	36%	1%	10%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	52%	35%	1%	10%
SurveyMonkey	September 9–24, 2018	1,609	± 3.3%	46%	35%	–	19%
Vox Populi Polling	September 16–18, 2018	567	± 4.1%	55%	45%	–	–
CNN/SSRS	September 11–15, 2018	723 LV	± 4.3%	52%	43%	0%	3%
		852 RV	± 3.9%	49%	43%	0%	5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	September 10–12, 2018	1,038	± 3.0%	54%	37%	–	9%
Fox News	September 8–11, 2018	686 LV	± 3.5%	55%	35%	1%	10%
		809 RV	± 3.5%	52%	34%	2%	12%
Marist College	August 25–28, 2018	538 LV	± 5.1%	53%	40%	1%	7%
		730 RV	± 4.5%	51%	39%	1%	9%
Gravis Marketing	August 9–11, 2018	620	± 3.9%	51%	40%	–	9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	38%	34%	–	28%

Hypothetical polling

with Karl Dean

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	July 11–14, 2018	657	± 4.1%	35%	39%	27%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	46%	35%	19%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	40%	31%	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Boyd (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine	July 11–14, 2018	657	± 4.1%	34%	36%	30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	43%	34%	23%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	38%	35%	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Beth Harwell (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	43%	33%	25%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	38%	33%	29%

with Craig Fitzhugh

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black (R)	Craig Fitzhugh (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	42%	27%	31%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Boyd (R)	Craig Fitzhugh (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	39%	30%	31%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Beth Harwell (R)	Craig Fitzhugh (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	44%	24%	32%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mae Beavers (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	36%	36%	28%
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	32%	37%	32%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mae Beavers (R)	Craig Fitzhugh (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	December 11–12, 2017	563	± 4.1%	36%	29%	34%

Results

300px

• Republican

    Hold

  Democratic

    Gain from Republican

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Bill Lee	1,336,106	59.56%	-10.75%
	Democratic	Karl Dean	864,863	38.55%	+15.71%
	Other	Other candidates	42,314	1.89%	N/A
	Write-in		11	0.00%	0.00%
Total votes			2,243,294	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Full results

Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bill Lee	1,336,106	59.6
	Democratic	Karl Dean	864,863	38.6
	Independent	Sherry L. Clark	5,198	0.2
	Independent	Mark Wright	4,687	0.2
	Independent	Patrick Whitlock	3,631	0.2
	Independent	Yvonne Neubert	3,070	0.1
	Independent	Heather Scott	2,969	0.1
	Independent	Mark CoonRippy Brown	2,841	0.1
	Independent	Joe B. Wilmoth	2,444	0.1
	Independent	George Blackwell Smith IV	1,550	0.1
	Independent	Cory King	1,502	0.1
	Independent	Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale	1,396	0.1
	Independent	Justin Cornett	1,217	0.1
	Independent	Chad Riden	1,096	0.0
	Independent	Robert Sawyers Sr.	1,059	0.0
	Independent	Vinnie Vineyard	1,012	0.0
	Independent	Rick Tyler	981	0.0
	Independent	Gabriel Fancher	869	0.0
	Independent	Sean Bruce Fleming	814	0.0
	Independent	Alfred Shawn Rapoza	800	0.0
	Independent	Jessie D. McDonald	755	0.0
	Independent	Toney Randall Mitchell	739	0.0
	Independent	Mike Toews	726	0.0
	Independent	Matthew Koch	652	0.0
	Independent	Jeremy Allen Stephenson	613	0.0
	Independent	Tommy Ray McAnally	609	0.0
	Independent	Jaron D. Weidner	588	0.0
	Independent	William Andrew Helmstetter	496	0.0
	Independent	Eddie Murphy (write-in)	11	0.0
Total votes			2,243,294	100.0
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Davidson (largest city: Nashville)
• Haywood (largest city: Brownsville)
• Shelby (largest city: Memphis)

By congressional district

Lee won 7 of 9 congressional districts.

District	Lee	Dean	Representative
1st	76.2%	22.7%	Phil Roe
2nd	63.5%	35.4%	Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress)
			Tim Burchett (116th Congress)
3rd	64.0%	35.0%	Chuck Fleischmann
4th	66.0%	33.0%	Scott DesJarlais
5th	35.6%	59.3%	Jim Cooper
6th	69.7%	29.3%	Diane Black (115th Congress)
			John Rose (116th Congress)
7th	65.4%	32.6%	Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress)
			Mark Green (116th Congress)
8th	66.5%	32.2%	David Kustoff
9th	21.5%	74.9%	Steve Cohen

See also

• 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee
• 2018 Tennessee elections

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Karl Dean (D) for Governor
• Bill Lee (R) for Governor
• Chad Riden (I) for Governor
• Vinnie Vineyard (L) for Governor