2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

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Not to be confused with 2020 Michigan Senate election.
2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
  x150px x150px
Nominee Gary Peters John James
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Gary Peters
Democratic


Elections in Michigan
Seal of Michigan.svg
This box:

The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Gary Peters is one of two Democratic U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016; the other is Doug Jones from Alabama.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2] The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4]

Peters is considered vulnerable due to low approval ratings.[citation needed] Michigan's status in the 2020 race is unclear, and likely will affect Peters' chances of defeating James.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gary Peters (Incumbent) 1,180,780 100.0%
Total votes 1,180,780 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Bill
Schuette		 Undecided
June 6, 2019 Schuette announces that he will not run by endorsing James
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 296 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] – 59% 15% 26%

Results

Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 1,005,315 100.0%
Total votes 1,005,315 100.0%

Other candidates

Communist Party

  • Frank Seldon Cupps (as a write-in candidate)[40]

Green Party

Nominee

Natural Law Party

Nominee

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee

  • Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[33]

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Lean D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[43] Lean D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Lean D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[45] Lean D August 31, 2020
Politico[46] Lean D September 9, 2020
RCP[47] Tossup September 17, 2020
Niskanen[48] Likely D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[49] Likely D September 16, 2020
538[50] Likely D September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical Summary

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Aggregate polls

John James vs. Gary Peters
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Gary Peters John James Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] Margin
270 To Win September 18–22, 2020 September 22, 2020 46.8% 39.8% Peters +7.0
Real Clear Politics September 1-19, 2020 September 22, 2020 46.3% 41.8% Peters +4.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other/
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University September 9–22, 2020 1,001 (LV) – 46% 41% –
Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020 568 (LV) – 50% 44% 5%[lower-alpha 4]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 1,376 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 47% 40% –
Data for Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 5]
Marketing Resource Group (R) September 14–19, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 20%[lower-alpha 6]
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 43% 7%[lower-alpha 7]
EPIC-MRA September 10–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 41% 14%[lower-alpha 8]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–14, 2020 930 (LV) ± 3.21% 51% 35% 13%[lower-alpha 9]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[upper-alpha 1] August 28 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 41% 14%
Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020 876 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 46% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
Rasmussen Reports September 2–3, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 13%[lower-alpha 11]
Glengariff Group/Detroit News September 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 41% 14%[lower-alpha 12]
Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 1–3, 2020 569 (RV) – 47% 46% 7%[lower-alpha 13]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 3, 2020 967 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 38% 12%[lower-alpha 14]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] August 28–29, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 14%[lower-alpha 15]
Change Research/CNBC August 21–23, 2020 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 16]
Trafalgar Group (R) August 14–23, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 17]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020 812 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 39% 13%[lower-alpha 18]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4](Hyperpartisan)[79] August 11–15, 2020 600 (LV) – 53% 39% 8%[lower-alpha 19]
Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] August 10–13, 2020 602 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 44% 7%
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 45% 7%[lower-alpha 20]
EPIC-MRA July 25–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 40% 10%[lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] July 28–29, 2020 876 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 13%[lower-alpha 22]
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.8% 48% 44% 8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 1,320 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 35% 16%
CNN/SSRS July 18–24, 2020 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 54% 38% 8%[lower-alpha 23]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 811 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 35% 13%[lower-alpha 24]
Gravis Marketing[1] July 22, 2020 754 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 39% 11%[lower-alpha 25]
Marketing Resource Group (R) July 19–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 26%[lower-alpha 26]
FOX News July 18–20, 2020 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 38% 15%[lower-alpha 27]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[80] July 13–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% 9%[lower-alpha 28]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 37% 15%[lower-alpha 29]
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 824 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 30]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] July 9–10, 2020 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 49% 42% 9%
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 31] ± 3.9% 49% 42% 9%[lower-alpha 32]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] June 26–27, 2020 1,237 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 14%[lower-alpha 33]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[81][76][69][69][98][100] June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 38% 12%[lower-alpha 34]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–17, 2020 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 29%[lower-alpha 35]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–16, 2020 826 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 32% 18%[lower-alpha 36]
Marketing Resource Group (R) June 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 30% 33%[lower-alpha 37]
American Greatness/TIPP (R) June 9–12, 2020 907 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 35% 17%[lower-alpha 38]
Kiaer Research May 31 – June 7, 2020 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 48% 32% 20%[lower-alpha 39]
EPIC-MRA May 30 – June 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 36% 13%[lower-alpha 40]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] May 29–30, 2020 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 13%[lower-alpha 41]
Change Research/Crooked Media May 11–17, 2020 3,070 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 43% 9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [82][77][70][70][99][101][96] May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 36% 17%[lower-alpha 42]
Public Policy Polling (D) April 28–29, 2020 1,270 (V) ± 3.2% 46% 37% 17%
FOX News April 18–21, 2020 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 36% 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[83] April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,019 (V) ± 3.1% 45% 38% 17%
Spry Strategies (R) March 30 – April 1, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[84][79][72][72][101][103][98] March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Marketing Resource Group (R) March 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 35% 17%[lower-alpha 43]
Firehouse/0ptimus March 5–7, 2020 550 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 41% 11%
Quinnipiac University February 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 39% 15%
Baldwin Wallace University January 8–20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Glengariff Group January 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% 16%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[85][80][73][73][102][104][99] November 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% 12%
Emerson College October 31 – November 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[86] October 10-16, 2019[lower-alpha 44] 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 35% 17%
Marketing Resource Group (R) October 7–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS News September 24–26, 2019 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 37% 10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) September 21–24, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2019 743 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 43% 14%
Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.

with Bob Carr and John James
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bob
Carr (R)		 John
James (R)		 Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes March 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 6%[lower-alpha 45] 27% 28%
with Bill Schuette
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bill
Schuette (R)		 Undecided
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 32% 17%
with Gary Peters and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D) May 8–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 36% 21%
with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
MRG Jun 12-15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19.2% 30.3%[lower-alpha 46] 50.5%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 47] 8%[lower-alpha 48]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 7] August 11–15, 2020 600 (LV) – 48% 39% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[87] July 13–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 34% – 15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 38% 15%[lower-alpha 49] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%[lower-alpha 50] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 51] –

Results

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent) {{{change}}}
Republican John James {{{change}}}
Green Marcia Squier {{{change}}}
Natural Law Doug Dern {{{change}}}
Taxpayers Valerie Willis {{{change}}}
Communist Frank Cupps (write-in) {{{change}}}
Total votes 100.00%

See also

Notes

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Partisan clients

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References

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External links

  • Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
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Official campaign websites
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  40. ↑ https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/2020GEN_CANDLIST.html
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  51. ↑ https://berniesanders.com/get-involved/
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  78. ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQy9sBC8fgo
  79. ↑ https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/07/john-james-michigan-outraises-dem/
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